A red hat reading “Keep America Great” perched on a Christmas tree during a rally in Michigan in December 2019 symbolized the intersection of politics and culture in the United States. Four years later, the 2024 presidential election has once again drawn a sharp line through consumer sentiment, reflecting the confidence – or concerns – of voters as the holiday shopping season begins.
Black Friday, the unofficial start of the holiday shopping season, is taking on a new tone this year as political divisions creep into consumer behavior. CNBC spoke to shoppers across the country, including Texas, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, North Carolina and Virginia, and analyzed shipping trends to understand how the recent presidential election may affect spending habits during the holidays.
Supporters of President-elect Donald Trump have expressed optimism about the economy, anticipating that his policies will bring growth and stability. On the other hand, voters who supported Vice President Kamala Harris remain cautious, worried that the incoming administration's economic plans could amplify financial challenges for the middle class. These differences in outlook could influence how Americans approach holiday shopping, with optimism fueling spending in some families and caution reigning in others.
For example, Amanda Davila, a 30-year-old New York educator and Harris supporter, said she plans to cut back on holiday spending this year. “I'm more cautious with my finances,” she told CNBC, citing concerns about student loan repayment and the future of programs like the SAVE repayment plan. “It's hard to be a millennial right now: buying a house, paying rent, buying groceries — there's just not enough income for everyone.”
By contrast, Trump voter Armando Duarte, a 62-year-old retired utility worker from Fort Lee, New Jersey, expressed optimism about the direction of the economy under Trump. “I feel better about this holiday season,” Duarte said. “I think inflation will go down, wages will go up and people will feel confident enough to spend again. Things will get better.”
Before the election, many retailers feared that political uncertainty could dampen consumer spending during this critical period. The shortened shopping window between Thanksgiving and Christmas also presented challenges. While some companies issued cautious forecasts for the second half of the year, citing potential distractions or unrest stemming from the election, others hoped for clarity once the results were finalized.
Now, with Trump's victory, there is a sense among his supporters that the economy is on the mend, which could boost spending in key parts of the country. Behavioral finance expert Meir Statman explained that consumer confidence often drives spending patterns. “People who feel optimistic about their financial future are more likely to spend, even if on credit, because they anticipate being able to pay it back,” Statman said. “Conversely, those who feel pessimistic – like many Democrats right now – could reduce spending.”
Shipping data from Grip, an e-commerce logistics provider, highlights a shift in consumer activity since the election. The company, which handles billions of packages each year, analyzed shipping volumes in “red” and “blue” states during the two months before the election and the two weeks after. The results were surprising: Shipping volumes increased 50.4% in Republican-leaning states after the election, while Democratic-leaning states saw an average decline of 11.2%. Only Illinois and Minnesota, among the blue states, saw an increase in shipping volumes during this period.
Juan Meisel, CEO of Grip, noted the correlation between political events and consumer behavior. “Our data shows how major events like elections can have a significant impact on consumer confidence, leading to changes in e-commerce spending and logistics patterns,” Meisel said.
A national consumer survey conducted by GlobalData further highlights the gap. The survey found that 51.3% of respondents believe Trump's presidency will have a positive effect on the economy, with 13.5% expecting to spend more during the holidays. In contrast, only 7.2% said they wanted to cut spending.
However, not all trends align neatly with political divides. A separate survey by retail analytics firm First Insight found that a third of consumers planned to reduce their holiday budgets due to election-related uncertainty. “The impact of the election on spending is mixed,” said Neil Saunders, chief executive of GlobalData. “However, overall, more people see Trump's victory as a positive for the economy, which could lead to a slight increase in holiday spending.”
Saunders added: “If people feel confident, they are more likely to spend a little more this season. Trump may not save Christmas, but he's definitely more of a Santa Claus figure to spend than a Grinch.”
Despite this optimism, inflation continues to weigh heavily on consumer balance sheets, creating a challenging environment for retailers. The National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts holiday sales growth this year of between 2.5% and 3.5%, in line with pre-pandemic averages but representing the slowest growth rate since 2018. Adjusted for inflation, real sales growth is expected to be around 0.5%. %, a significant decline compared to the average annual growth of 4.41% between 2010 and 2019.
“I think we're in for a tough holiday season,” said Isaac Krakovsky, retail advisory leader for EY Americas. “Many of my clients are reducing capital expenditures because they are cautious about market conditions. That tells me this season may be smaller than retailers are hoping.”
Bain & Company expects further disparities across retail categories. While clothing and groceries are expected to see modest growth, sales of furniture and home goods are likely to decline, and electronics are expected to remain stable. Those trends were evident earlier this week, when Abercrombie & Fitch reported a strong holiday forecast, while electronics retailer Best Buy warned of declining demand.
Even among shoppers planning to spend more, the driving factor appears to be inflation rather than increases in purchasing power. “The prices are so high that I spend more, but not because I buy more things,” said Meri Pitts, a 24-year-old college student from Detroit. For Pitts, the rising cost of goods has dampened her enthusiasm for holiday shopping. “I used to love buying gifts for my friends, but now it's stressful because I'm worried about how much it will cost.”
Ultimately, while Trump's election victory has boosted confidence among his supporters, financial pressures such as inflation continue to impact spending habits across the board. Retailers will likely face a mixed picture this holiday season, with optimism in some regions offset by caution in others. The political divide, it seems, isn't just about votes, but also about how Americans shop.