In a recent interview, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon reiterated his view that a U.S. recession remains a likely outcome, assigning a 35% to 40% chance for a mild economic downturn. That reflects his consistent stance since February, when he expressed skepticism about the market’s overly positive sentiment on recession risks.
In his conversation with CNBC’s Leslie Picker, Dimon stressed that his assessment remains unchanged, highlighting ongoing global and domestic challenges that could impact economic stability. These include geopolitical tensions, housing market fluctuations, government deficits, and policy actions such as quantitative tightening and upcoming elections, all of which are contributing to market malaise.
Despite a turbulent economic outlook for 2022, in which Dimon warned of an impending economic “hurricane,” the U.S. economy has shown resilience, performing better than expected. Rising credit card defaults currently signal potential trouble, but Dimon confirmed that the nation is not currently in a recession.
Expressing cautious optimism, Dimon expressed concerns about the Federal Reserve’s ability to hit a 2% inflation target, especially with upcoming green and defense spending. He acknowledged the wide range of possible outcomes, maintaining an overall positive outlook that the U.S. could weather a mild or even severe recession without catastrophic impacts, though he expressed empathy for those who might face unemployment in such scenarios.
Dimon concluded with a note on the resilience of the American economy, stressing the need to prepare for various possible economic conditions, while expressing his hope that hardship for those directly affected by the economic crisis will be minimized.