In January 2025, the U.S. economy displayed a blend of resilience and new challenges appearing in different sectors.
In January 2025, the U.S. economy exhibited mixed signals, reflecting both resilience and emerging challenges across various sectors.
El índice S&P Global Flash U.S. Composite PMI Output, que sigue el desempeño de los sectores manufacturero y de servicios, cayó a 52.4 en enero desde 55.4 en diciembre, alcanzando su nivel más bajo desde abril. A pesar de esta desaceleración, el índice se mantuvo por encima del umbral de 50, lo que sugiere que la expansión continúa. Principalmente, el sector servicios contribuyó a este freno, mientras que la manufactura mostró crecimiento por primera vez en siete meses, impulsada por expectativas de regulaciones más flexibles y menores impuestos bajo la actual administración. Cabe destacar que las empresas incrementaron la contratación al ritmo más rápido en dos años y medio, lo que indica optimismo sobre las condiciones económicas futuras.
The S&P Global Flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index, which monitors the manufacturing and services sectors, declined to 52.4 in January from 55.4 in December, marking the lowest level since April. Despite this slowdown, the index remained above the 50 threshold, indicating continued expansion. The services sector primarily contributed to this deceleration, while manufacturing experienced growth for the first time in seven months, driven by expectations of looser regulations and lower taxes under the current administration. Notably, businesses increased hiring at the fastest rate in two and a half years, signaling optimism about future economic conditions.
Consumer Confidence and Spending
Expectativas de Inflación y Política Monetaria
Consumer inflation expectations have increased significantly. According to the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey, expected inflation for the upcoming year rose to 3.3% in January, up from 2.8% in December, reaching its highest point since May. Long-term inflation expectations also rose to 3.3%, the most elevated since June 2008. These elevated expectations might affect actual inflation, as businesses may feel more confident in increasing prices. In reaction to these changes, the Federal Reserve is likely to keep the federal funds rate within the 4.25% to 4.50% target range at its forthcoming meeting, taking a measured stance on monetary policy amid ongoing inflation worries.
Dynamics of the Labor Market
El mercado laboral sigue siendo fuerte, con las solicitudes iniciales de beneficios por desempleo aumentando ligeramente en 6,000, alcanzando 223,000 en la semana que finalizó el 18 de enero de 2025. Este incremento marginal sugiere que los despidos siguen siendo bajos, incluso cuando las oportunidades laborales se vuelven más escasas debido a la cautela de los empleadores al expandir sus plantillas. La fortaleza del mercado laboral respalda la decisión de la Reserva Federal de pausar nuevos recortes en las tasas de interés mientras evalúa la duración necesaria de una política monetaria restrictiva para alcanzar una tasa de interés neutral.
The labor market remains robust, with initial claims for unemployment benefits rising slightly by 6,000 to 223,000 for the week ending January 18, 2025. This marginal increase suggests that layoffs remain low, even as job opportunities become scarcer due to employer caution in expanding headcounts. The resilience of the labor market supports the Federal Reserve’s decision to pause further interest rate cuts as it assesses the necessary duration of tight monetary policy to achieve a neutral rate of interest.
Financial Markets and Investor Sentiment
Financial markets have exhibited volatility in response to mixed economic data and corporate earnings reports. Major indexes closed lower, with the technology sector leading the downturn. Strong housing market data contrasted with a slowdown in business activity, while consumer sentiment declined. Investors are closely monitoring these indicators ahead of key economic releases and the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions. The prospect of potential inflation stemming from proposed tariffs has also contributed to market uncertainty.
